It's looking like a bad time to invest in the diaper industry. Birth rates in the US reached an all-time low in 2011.
US fertility has been declining steadily since 2008, according to a report published last week by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The report was compiled from birth certificates registered across the US.
In 2008, the average number of children per woman was 2.1, roughly the figure needed to replace each parent and keep the population stable. In 2011, this figure dropped to 1.9.
"It's not necessarily worrisome," says Mark Mather of the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, DC. "But if we were to see a sustained drop over five to 10 years, that may be a concern."
The falling fertility rate is tightly tied to the economic downturn during the past four years, Mather says. Couples are putting off having children, and women's salaries have become more important to household income, he says.
Rebound effect?
If the economy bounced back, birth rates would probably increase, says Mather. But it is not clear whether that would be the case for long. It might be counterbalanced by the long-term increase in the number of women entering college and the workforce who are subsequently delaying having children or having fewer of them.
The report found that the number of women giving birth in their 30s increased by 3 per cent in 2011 compared with 2010. Women in their 40s also had more children than in 2010. "If you're younger and the economy isn't good, you have the option to delay having a child," says Brady Hamilton, a co-author of the report, based at the NCHS headquarters in Hyattsville, Maryland. "For older women, that's not a viable option."
The US fertility rate is still far higher than those of most European countries: Germany, for instance, averages 1.36 children per woman. And the welfare problems caused by having an ageing population aren't yet as urgent as they are in Japan, say, where nearly a quarter of the population is older than 65, Mather says.
If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.
Have your say
Only subscribers may leave comments on this article. Please log in.
Only personal subscribers may leave comments on this article
Subscribe now to comment.
All comments should respect the New Scientist House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please use the "Report" link in that comment to report it to us.
If you are having a technical problem posting a comment, please contact technical support.
Gabby Douglas hair Kayla Harrison Mars landing Gabby Douglas John Orozco Garrett Reid shawn johnson
কোন মন্তব্য নেই:
একটি মন্তব্য পোস্ট করুন